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近期鋼材坯料和期貨價(jià)格同漲，但未能帶動(dòng)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格，期現(xiàn)價(jià)差縮減至平水。冬儲(chǔ)行情令鋼材社會(huì)庫(kù)存大幅上漲，部分現(xiàn)貨企業(yè)對(duì)供給側(cè)改革預(yù)期較為樂(lè)觀，積極囤貨。春節(jié)將近，流通貿(mào)易商基本表現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)，節(jié)前螺紋行情將受到需求淡季的影響，加上前期期貨貼水縮減，期貨價(jià)格恐將進(jìn)一步下跌。
Recent steel billet and futures prices rose, but failed to drive spot prices, the current price difference reduced to flat water. Winter market make steel inventories rose sharply, part of the spot enterprises are more optimistic about the expected supply side reforms, the active stockpile. Spring Festival approaching, the circulation of traders basically stable performance, the market will be affected by the pre holiday market demand off-season, coupled with pre futures discount reduction, futures prices will further decline.
近期供給側(cè)改革依然是影響市場(chǎng)供給的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。發(fā)改委與工信部聯(lián)合發(fā)布《關(guān)于運(yùn)用價(jià)格手段促進(jìn)鋼鐵行業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革有關(guān)事項(xiàng)的通知》，通知顯示淘汰類(lèi)由每千瓦時(shí)加價(jià)0.3元提高至每千瓦時(shí)加價(jià)0.5元;限制類(lèi)繼續(xù)維持每千瓦時(shí)加價(jià)0.1元;未按期完成化解過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能實(shí)施方案中，有化解任務(wù)的鋼鐵企業(yè)電價(jià)參照淘汰類(lèi)每千瓦時(shí)加價(jià)0.5元執(zhí)行。本輪差別化電價(jià)調(diào)整將推高落后產(chǎn)能的生產(chǎn)成本，加速落后產(chǎn)能的淘汰。

Recent supply side reform is still the main driving force affecting the market supply. Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry jointly issued the "notice" on the promotion of matters related to the steel industry supply side structural reform by means of price, notice out of class by 0.3 yuan per kilowatt hour increase to 0.5 yuan per kilowatt hour increase; restrictions continue to increase 0.1 yuan per kilowatt hour; fails to complete the implementation plan to resolve the overcapacity in the iron and steel enterprises have to resolve the price reference task out of class 0.5 yuan per kilowatt hour increase execution. The current round of differential tariff adjustment will push up production costs of backward production capacity, and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.
據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，2016年12月下旬重點(diǎn)鋼企粗鋼日均產(chǎn)量166.38萬(wàn)噸，環(huán)比上一旬增加0.82萬(wàn)噸，增幅0.49%。據(jù)此估算，2017年1月上旬全國(guó)粗鋼日均產(chǎn)量約為218萬(wàn)噸，旬環(huán)比增加0.72萬(wàn)噸，增幅0.33%。節(jié)前鋼鐵產(chǎn)量進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)動(dòng)力不足，據(jù)我的鋼鐵網(wǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)，近期全國(guó)163家鋼廠高爐產(chǎn)能利用率80.66%，較前期環(huán)比略增0.31%，163家鋼廠高爐開(kāi)工率72.38%，環(huán)比增0.14%，同比基本持平，降幅有限。鋼廠盈利率增至71.17%，環(huán)比繼續(xù)增加，主要源于近期爐料現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格并未跟隨鋼價(jià)上漲，加上“地條鋼清理”利好消息的刺激，鋼材現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格略有走高。
According to statistics, in late December 2016, key steel enterprises average daily output of 1 million 663 thousand and 800 tons of steel, an increase of 8 thousand and 200 tons over the previous month, an increase of 0.49%. According to this estimate, the average daily output of crude steel in China was about 2 million 180 thousand tons in January 2017 and 7 thousand and 200 tons in the past ten months, an increase of 0.33%. Before the steel production further cuts the power shortage, according to my steel net monitoring, the recent national steel 163 blast furnace production capacity utilization rate of 80.66%, compared with the previous a slight increase of 0.31% QoQ, 163 steel blast furnace operating rate of 72.38%, an increase of 0.14%, an essentially flat, limited decline. Mills profit rate increased to 71.17%, continued to increase, mainly due to the recent spot prices did not follow the burden of rising steel prices, coupled with the "clean steel" good news, spot steel prices slightly higher.
爐料方面，鐵礦石港口庫(kù)存再創(chuàng)歷史新高，受到國(guó)際礦商出口高峰以及霧霾天氣導(dǎo)致華北、華東地區(qū)疏港量下滑，截至1月13日，全國(guó)41個(gè)港口鐵礦石庫(kù)存環(huán)比上漲167萬(wàn)噸至11899萬(wàn)噸。目前多數(shù)鋼廠鐵礦石庫(kù)存水平較高，節(jié)前采購(gòu)意愿一般。焦炭方面，鋼廠庫(kù)存累積、產(chǎn)量下滑導(dǎo)致需求走弱，加上焦煤供給上升，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格繼續(xù)下調(diào)。
Charge, iron ore port stocks hit a record high, by the international miners and the haze weather caused the peak export volume in North China and East China decline, as of January 13th, the 41 iron ore port stocks rose 1 million 670 thousand to 118 million 990 thousand tons. At present, the majority of steel mills, iron ore inventory levels higher, general willingness to purchase before the holiday. Coke, steel stocks accumulated, production decline led to weaker demand, coupled with coking coal supply rise, spot prices continue to decline.
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Our company will abide by the principle of commercial integrity and equality and mutual benefit, and provide the best service for our customers, and create more perfect works. We are willing to work together with friends from all walks of life to create prosperity.